Modeling the probability of mortality of Pinus oocarpa in sites of prescribed burning or affected by forest fires in Chiapas

Abstract

Tree mortality is an estimator of fire severity. In this work, the probability of mortality by fire of Pinus oocarpa was analyzed in four areas at the ejido Corazón del Valle, Chiapas, México. The study included three burned areas (prescribed burning, conducted fire and forest fire) and one area that had not been burned for more than 30 years. Logistic models were used to analyze the influence of dasometric and fire-damage variables in order to identify the ones that explain mortality. The results show that total height and diameter to the breast height are significant variables that allow to estimate the probability of mortality by fire in the area affected by forest fire. Tree survival was: 100% in the prescribed burning area as well as in the area not burned during the past 30 years, 98.9% in the conducted forest fire, and 37.6% in the forest fire. These models may be useful to formulate burning prescriptions and to estimate the tree survival in case of forest fire.