Labor force projections for Mexico, 2015-2050

Abstract

We use a multiple states model for the projections, distinguishing formal employment of informal and unemployment, agricultural employment and population not in labor force. We prefigure three scenarios: retaining the recent labor market conditions, assuming an economic recovery with 80% of the labor force in formal employs in 2050, and the intermediate situation of both scenarios. Estimates of labor force are linked to García’s probabilistic population projections. Results indicate that the volume of labor force is mainly determined by the demographic projection, while the composition of labor force is defined by the forecasts of accessions and departures from the labor market and mobility within labor force.