A review of the probabilistic population projection for Mexico using the cohort-component method

Abstract

In this paper, the probabilistic version of the cohort-component method is reviewed. Such a method is applied to the information of demographic conciliation made by the Mexican Society of Demography for the period 1960-2010. The projected period 2011-2050 is analyzed and assessed comparing these results with information observed or estimated for total population, fertility and migration by 2015. The projection of levels and trends for both the demographic variables and the total population by age and sex is accurate in the short term; however, there are some areas of opportunity in fertility age structure projection, in particular by 2015, and in the amplitude of prediction intervals. The difference between projected and observed male population volume between the ages of 15 and 50 by year 2015 could be related to the increase in mortality in this age group.