Remittances and social welfare in Michoacán: a systemic approach

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role that remittances have played in the social welfare of the state of Michoacan. This role is expressed through the Human Development Index (HDI) with refer­ence to the Human Development Report of Michoacán, 2007 edited by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). This study uses system dynamics (SD) methods, which allow the use of a group of variables that directly and indirectly affect remittances and welfare. In the same analysis, the SD approach includes time delays and feedback effects that oc­cur among other variables that affect migration. Three alternative scenarios were analyzed (baseline, optimistic and pessimistic) based on the simulation results that were obtained.