Price volatility in the Mexican fruit sector: The case of the orange

Abstract

To determine the existence of the seasonal and cyclical component in the wholesale price of oranges, a price analysis was carried out at the supply centers of Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey from September 2000 to August 2017. The results indicate that the seasonal index reaches its maximum value between June and September in the three supply centers. The maximum differences between the real price and the seasonally adjusted price indicate the presence of a strong seasonal component. Moreover, six cycles with an average duration of 18, 16, and 18 months for the three supply centers were also detected. To avoid the volatility in the price of oranges, it is recommended to plan the production in space and time, as well as to promote the industrialization of oranges.